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Welcome, friends, to the next console generation. By the time you read this, Nintendo will have launched the Switch 2 and we’ll all be either marveling at the wonder of Mario Kart World or intensely jealous of those who managed to secure the console at launch. Whichever camp you end up in (I’ll be one of the jealous ones), Nintendo is already banking on the Switch 2 selling well. In fact, they seem to think that it will do just as well as the Switch, which we have some doubts about.

Here is the boring business stuff – Nintendo expects to sell around 15-20 million Switch 2s in 2025, which would put it roughly on pace with the original Switch during its launch window.

“Our goal with the Nintendo Switch 2 hardware sales is to get off to the same start as we did with Nintendo Switch,” explained Nintendo president Shuntaro Furukawa during the May 2025 Nintendo Investor Q&A. He acknowledged that this was a conservative estimate based on the positive reaction from fans, but the high price of the console might put people off.

I’m not going to stand here and say that the Switch 2 isn’t going to hit that lofty first-year target – the buzz around the console is palpable and I personally cannot wait to get my hands on one. However, it is wild to think that Nintendo is going to follow up their second (and soon to be first) best-selling console of all time with another similar success. There are a couple of factors that lead me to doubt that it will happen.

First, let's talk launch titles. Early adoption of a console usually depends on how good the games are when it launches. No one wants an expensive hunk of hardware with nothing to do with it (he says, looking at his PlayStation 5). We’ve already discussed how the Switch had the benefit of being able to port underselling Wii U games over for an easy win, but the console had ten games available at launch, which grew to 22 by the end of the first three months of the console’s life.

In those titles were ports of The Legend of Zelda: Breath of the Wild, and Mario Kart 8, plus Splatoon 2. That is three big hits, including the best-selling game in the Switch’s life cycle (Mario Kart 8 Deluxe). Two of these were ports from the Wii U that were well-reviewed but undersold on that console. That is three system sellers in a relatively short period of time, which is no small feat.

Let’s compare that to the Switch 2. The new Nintendo console wins in terms of the number of games playable on June 5, 2025 with 22. However, almost all of those are ports or remakes rather than full games. Another 15 games are expected to be released by the end of August 2025, giving us more than 30 games to play on the Switch 2. However, only two of those could be classified as system sellers – Mario Kart World and Donkey Kong Bananza. The rest are games that you’ll likely pick up if you have a Switch 2, but won’t inspire you to buy one.

So, their launch lineups are similar, with a slight edge to the Switch. We don’t know what Nintendo has cooking for the next Zelda or Mario games, which will certainly be telling for the console’s future, so let’s call this a draw. The biggest test to see if the Switch 2 can match the Switch in terms of sales won’t be anything we know until 2027 or 2028. This is because most Nintendo consoles peak in sales during their third and fourth year of production.

The Switch had the benefit (?) of reaching its third year of production in 2020 – you know, that time when we all had to stay inside and play video games, something that lingered well into 2021, driving up demand for gaming consoles, including the Switch. Will the Switch 2 benefit from a similar pandemic? God, we hope not. We don’t know what the world will look like in three years so it is tough to say. We do know that we’re facing some economic uncertainty across multiple industries for some reason, so it may not be the best time to launch a new, more expensive console.

Nintendo can’t control the state of the world economy , but they can control the quality of the games on the Switch 2. While the Switch is still chasing the DS as the best-selling Nintendo console, it has absolutely eclipsed it in terms of software sales. The DS sold a total of 948.76 million games during its lifetime. The Switch? 1.39 billion and it isn’t done yet.

That is the biggest factor that will determine the Switch 2’s success. In that same Q&A from May 2025, Furukawa says that the Switch 2 has a lower profit margin than the Switch due to the expensive hardware in the console. Nintendo’s profits will come from software sales – they get a cut of every game sold for the Switch 2, even if they don’t make it. That is where the real money is, which is why Nintendo's status as one of the best first-party developers in gaming is a huge asset.

The question is this; can Nintendo really hope to match the Switch sales with the Switch 2? I can’t answer that yet but I have some doubts. They have all the tools – a solid launch lineup and plenty of momentum coming off the Switch’s success. They have the goodwill of fans (mostly) but their timing could be better and they are, by their own admission, asking players to put more money down than ever before. I don’t doubt that the Switch 2 will be a success. I just don’t know if it will be as successful as its predecessor.

You don't need to beat the game to prepare for the next one—here are all the major new and upcoming games coming our way.