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The biggest story in gaming in 2025 has been the launch of the Switch 2, which saw Nintendo sell more than six million Switch 2 units in the first seven weeks after launch. Of those, 1.6 million were sold in the US, making it the fastest-selling console in US history. However, this isn’t the real test of whether the Switch 2 has a chance of hitting Nintendo’s lofty 15-million-unit target for the console’s first year. That, according to one industry analyst, is going to come down to the holiday season.

“[What] we can conclude from the high sales of Switch 2 at launch is that they made a lot of Switch 2 units,” Mat Piscatella explained in an interview with The Game Business. Piscatella is the analyst and games lead at data firm Circana. “Great start, not taking anything away from it. They were super confident. They put their money where their mouth was, and said, ‘We believed we can sell this, we’re going to take the knees out of the scalper and secondary market, we are going to make sure if people want a Switch 2, they can get one from us at MSRP’. Or thereabouts. And for the most part, they succeeded in doing that. That’s fantastic. That’s wonderful.”

However, a strong opening doesn’t always mean the Switch 2 is going to have the same lengthy life cycle that its predecessor did for Nintendo. “But ultimately, the launch sales of hardware doesn’t often correlate to the lifetime sales,” Piscatella explained, throwing something of a wet blanket on the dreams of Nintendo fans. “We’ve had devices come out with incredible early sales that have fallen off, and other consoles and devices that have come out with weak sales and have ended up being the best-selling systems of all time. But hey, a record-setting launch like this… I don’t think anyone is going to be upset with that or say it’s a bad thing. It’s just tough right now to come away with any long-term conclusions or projections. Although this is a hell of a good early read.”

Piscatella believes that the high price point of the Switch 2 was never going to be a huge problem for Day One buyers, but it is going to take a bit more time to see if they can crack the mass market buyer this holiday season – and it might come down to how Americans end up feeling about the economy in the second half of the year. “Of course, in the US market in particular, all that uncertainty around pricing and the tariff situation and where people are financially are going to play into that as well. So we’ll have to see. The range of error on any forecast now in the video game space, and the US in particular, is the highest it’s ever been.”

For Nintendo, the real success or failure of the Switch 2, from a sales point of view, is how well they can convince the average buyer that the console is a worthwhile Christmas present. “That’s the next test,” warns Piscattella.

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